Downsizing to the city has been the dream of many empty-nesters and retirees. That was 'BC,' before ... [+]
Anna’s bright blue eyes light up as she explains her reasons for moving to the city in retirement. A little more than a year ago she sold her four-bedroom suburban home and moved into a two-bedroom apartment downtown. When asked why she downsized to less than half of the space she enjoyed for decades, the excited 70-year-old retiree exclaimed, “Everything is right there. Anything I want—food, fun, it’s all right outside my door!”
Boomers across North America have begun eschewing larger living spaces in favor of smaller, big-city digs—and not just for the improved access to restaurants and excitement, but as Jila, a 68-year old retired piano teacher, noted when moving from the outskirts to downtown Toronto, priorities change — such as having ready access healthcare.
Add in the convenience of not having to drive much (or at all) and the ease of maintaining a smaller space (often without a yard), and, for many new suburban and rural retirees, the decision to downsize to the city has been a no-brainer. In fact, AARP reports that data from TenantCloud, a residential property management software service, “show that nearly one-third of all urban applications are for renters over age 60.”
But that was B.C.: before COVID-19.
Events as significant as COVID-19 do not simply affect us in the moment then disappear. They reframe future values, priorities, perceptions of risk, choices, and, ultimately, behaviors. (Think, for instance, about how often people reference the ‘great recession,’ now over ten years distant, when discussing nearly any economic issue today.)
Any number of social trends that were pointing in one direction at the start of 2020 may reverse course by the end of the crisis. Will the urban retirement wave be one of them?
It’s still too early to look for meaning in real-estate numbers, but it’s not too soon to start thinking about shifts in imagery. Consider the associations now developing around the very ideas of urban space and distance. While COVID-19 is affecting everyone, older adults, especially those with underlying conditions, appear to be particularly vulnerable to its worst effects. Meanwhile, cities, as a result of their high population inflows, outflows, and density, are being hit hardest. (For now, anyway—rural regions remain at real risk.) Moreover, space to provide safe physical “distance” is at a premium in cities.
Then there are the images of exodus. Droves of wealthier New Yorkers—those most likely to occupy the city’s most spacious and comfortable homes—have been seen fleeing to their summer houses: from the outer reaches of Long Island to the Green Mountains of Vermont, the lakes of upstate New York down to the Jersey shore.
So many people have been escaping the nation’s epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, in fact, that Rhode Island installed police and National Guard checkpoints at the border, with orders to stop cars carrying New York license plates. The governors of Maryland, South Carolina, and Texas, too, have ordered their police to stop and warn drivers with New York tags.
Most retirees cannot afford second homes; when they downsize, there’s no extra cottage or condo to escape to. But, as MSNBC’s Mika Brzezinski noted in an interview with Boston’s Massachusetts General Hospital Partners Healthcare President Peter Slavin, “physical distancing in New York City, Boston, in other major congested areas—it’s, it’s impossible. You are asking people to stay in their apartments, and in their small apartments, for long periods.”
For a few weeks, with most of the “third spaces” that make city life so enviable—bars, restaurants, coffee shops—shuttered, Boston residents rediscovered the city’s parks. But, they visited green spaces and sports facilities in such numbers that physical distancing practices became nearly impossible, compelling Boston’s Mayor Marty Walsh to close public spaces, forcing people back inside.
All told, COVID-19 has potentially reframed what people might view as desirable in terms of living space and neighborhood density. When the veil eventually lifts, what percentage of cities’ attractive pull will remain? Will stories of hipster Millennials and affluent retirees enjoying big lifestyles in small places be replaced by something far less pleasant?
Memories do eventually fade, but the influence of the COVID-19 experience is likely to linger throughout the retirement years of the Baby Boomers. If so, a few possible scenarios might develop.
Personal As Premium — In one possibility, retirees will continue hoping to move to the city, but only if they can find more space than is currently on offer in typical urban, multifamily housing. This mismatch will certainly affect the number of people who can afford such a move, and those who do manage to downsize to cities may arrive with a new set of consumer preferences—to the surprise of developers. The current preference for housing complexes that err on the side of smaller quarters in favor of larger common areas may dissipate. In the wake of COVID-19, a ‘spacious studio’ or a one bedroom with a spare room may simply feel too small, and common amenity space too risky. Vast investments in common rooms and fitness centers may give way to ensuring adequate personal living space to save your relationship with your partner during quarantine and to fit your exercise bike that doubles as a clothes hanger.
Urban Light — Other empty nesters and retirees may seek urban-light living: housing in less dense areas of the city, or even suburbs. Communities that offer walkable, mini town centers with green space and a diversity of retail and restaurant activities, while still situated within ride-hailing distance of the big city, may find themselves attracting Millennials, Gen X’ers, and Baby Boomers alike.
Suburban Sanctuary — Finally, most people approaching retirement—an estimated 87%—report that they want to age-in-place. That is, they would prefer to stay in the home they live in today. For most Baby Boomers, that home is in the suburbs. The COVID-19 experience may have them doubling down on their current situation by remodeling or otherwise altering their current home: one that offers a sanctuary and space both inside and out.
